· Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Fjolnir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Fjolnir and 1.43 for Thróttur Vogar, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Fjolnir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fjolnir win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fjolnir home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Thróttur Vogar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fjolnir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Fjolnir and 1.43 for Thróttur Vogar, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Fjolnir
- 2026-08-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kári · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 2-2 (D)
Thróttur Vogar
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjolnir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Kári · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Selfoss · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fjolnir win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.