FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.70 for Rīgas FS, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Jablonec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rīgas FS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.70 for Rīgas FS, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FK Jablonec win33%

Draw23%

Rīgas FS win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–29.0%
2–17.7%
0–17.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

FK Jablonec

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 3-0 (W)

Rīgas FS

2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.