Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.78 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Flamengo win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Flamengo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gremio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Flamengo win57%

Draw25%

Gremio win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.9%
2–011.9%
1–111.5%
0–09.3%
2–19.2%

Recent form

Flamengo

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)

Gremio

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T22:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 1-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2025-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Flamengo 1-1 Gremio (Serie A)
2025-04-13T20:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2024-09-22T21:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-3 Gremio (Serie A)
2024-06-13T23:00:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-1 Gremio (Serie A)
2023-10-26T00:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-3 Gremio (Serie A)
2023-08-17T00:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 1-0 Gremio (Copa Do Brasil)
2023-07-27T00:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-0 Gremio (Copa Do Brasil)
2023-06-11T21:30:00.000Z · Flamengo 3-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2021-11-24T00:00:00.000Z · Flamengo 2-2 Gremio (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	-31	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Flamengo win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.