Estádio do Maracanã · Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flamengo win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flamengo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RB Bragantino away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for RB Bragantino, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 1–012.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–08.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 54.7% vs market 50.0%, edge +4.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +4.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.8% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.90 | 32.6% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 67.1% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.0% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 7.81 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.4% | 87.2% | 1.15 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -4.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Flamengo
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
RB Bragantino
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flamengo win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.