Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Flora Tallinn and 0.95 for Kuressaare, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Flora Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Flora Tallinn win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Flora Tallinn home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kuressaare away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Flora Tallinn win59%

Draw23%

Kuressaare win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.2%
1–110.7%
2–010.4%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Recent form

Flora Tallinn

2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)

Kuressaare

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-3 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2026-07-02T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 3-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2026-04-07T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2025-11-01T12:30:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2025-08-24T11:30:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2025-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 3-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 5-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2024-10-26T09:30:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 3-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2024-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 4-3 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
2024-05-21T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 1-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)

Meistriliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	26	6	1	66	84
2	Paide	33	18	6	9	14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	34	19	1	14	15	58
4	Kalju Nomme	33	16	6	11	22	54
5	Tammeka	33	16	2	15	-5	50
6	Laagri	34	15	2	17	-1	47
7	Vaprus	33	10	6	17	-22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	10	5	18	-18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	11	1	21	-22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	5	5	23	-49	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Flora Tallinn win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.