Estádio do Maracanã · Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Fluminense vs Coritiba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.82 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fluminense win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fluminense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coritiba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 52.3% vs market 47.3%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 78.6% | 1.27 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 63.3% | 1.58 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.2% | 15.3% | 6.54 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.7% | 21.4% | 4.67 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.0% | 84.7% | 1.18 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.7% | 36.7% | 2.72 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fluminense
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-3 (L)
Coritiba
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T23:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2023-11-26T00:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2023-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2022-08-20T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 5-2 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2022-05-01T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-3 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2021-01-20T23:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 3-3 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2020-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2017-11-09T23:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-2 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2017-07-16T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba (Serie A)
- 2016-10-23T20:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Coritiba (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fluminense win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.