Fluminense vs Internacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.08 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Fluminense win

48.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fluminense home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Fluminense win48%

Draw25%

Internacional win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–011.2%
2–19.4%
2–08.7%
0–17.8%

Recent form

Fluminense

2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)

Internacional

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T21:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-10-25T20:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-08-07T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-07-31T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-06-01T23:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-0 Internacional (Serie A)
2024-11-08T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2024-07-04T23:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2023-11-08T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Internacional (Serie A)
2023-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Internacional (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2023-09-28T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-2 Internacional (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	32	66
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	12	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	4	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
7	Bahia	31	13	10	8	5	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	11	8	12	3	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	-4	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	9	8	13	-7	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	-15	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	3	9	18	-32	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fluminense win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.