Estádio do Maracanã · Referee D. Lacerda · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.92 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fluminense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 58.3% vs market 50.0%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.0% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 41.3% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 70.3% | 1.42 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.3% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.3% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fluminense
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-3 (L)
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-3 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-03-19T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-3 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2026-03-01T21:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Vasco DA Gama (Carioca - 1)
- 2026-02-22T21:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Carioca - 1)
- 2025-12-14T23:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2025-12-11T23:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-2 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2025-10-20T22:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-2 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2025-05-24T21:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.