Luigi Ferraris · Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Genoa and 1.21 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Fiorentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 29% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Genoa and 1.21 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.9% vs market 46.7%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.5% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.8% | 41.1% | 2.43 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.9% | 3.46 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 70.2% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.6% | 30.0% | 3.33 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 0-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2025-02-02T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2024-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2024-04-15T16:30:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2023-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 1-4 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2022-01-17T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 0-6 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2021-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2021-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
- 2020-12-07T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.