Planet Group Arena · Referee Eric Lambrechts, Belgium · Analysis updated 20:43 UTC
Gent vs Club Brugge KV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gent and 1.11 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gent home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Brugge KV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Gent
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-0 (W)
Club Brugge KV
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lommel United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · Gent 0-5 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-04-26T11:30:00.000Z · Gent 0-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-12-21T12:30:00.000Z · Gent 1-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-08-31T11:30:00.000Z · Gent 1-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-05-01T14:15:00.000Z · Gent 1-4 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-04-20T16:30:00.000Z · Gent 0-5 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Gent 1-1 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · Gent 4-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-01-16T19:45:00.000Z · Gent 0-1 Club Brugge KV (Cup)
- 2023-12-17T12:30:00.000Z · Gent 0-2 Club Brugge KV (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.