· Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Getafe II vs CF Talavera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Getafe II and 0.95 for CF Talavera, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Getafe II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CF Talavera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Getafe II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Getafe II and 0.95 for CF Talavera, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 57.1% vs market 53.3%, edge +3.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.3% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +3.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 29.2% | 3.42 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.2% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.1% | 29.1% | 3.44 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.9% | 1.41 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.8% | 1.41 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -3.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Getafe II
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 0-2 (L)
CF Talavera
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · Getafe II 1-1 CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2026-08-19T18:30:00.000Z · Getafe II 1-0 CF Talavera (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Getafe II 1-2 CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-12-14T17:00:00.000Z · Getafe II 1-0 CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z · Getafe II 0-3 CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · Getafe II 1-4 CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | SS Reyes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Real Madrid III | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Calvo Sotelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.