· Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.10 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.0% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GIL Vicente home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Clara away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.7%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
GIL Vicente
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-03T20:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-10-25T19:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-06T14:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 2-3 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-12-29T17:00:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-06T15:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 2-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-07-10T10:00:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 2-1 Santa Clara (Friendlies Clubs)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.