· Analysis updated 17:20 UTC
Gneist vs Førde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gneist and 1.87 for Førde, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Førde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Førde win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gneist home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Førde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Førde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Gneist and 1.87 for Førde, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 2.10 (model 55.9% vs market 42.8%, edge +13.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 2.10 | 42.8% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +13.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 52.8% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 66.9% | 68.2% | 1.47 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 45.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 32.3% | 31.8% | 3.14 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 80.3% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -2.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.57 | 57.2% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -13.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gneist
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-3 (D)
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · Gneist 1-2 Førde (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Gneist 1-2 Førde (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2025-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · Gneist 3-2 Førde (3. Division - Girone 4)
- 2025-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Gneist 2-3 Førde (3. Division - Girone 4)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Førde win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.