Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes · Referee Saul Ais Reig, Spain · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Granada CF vs Mallorca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.24 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Granada CF home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Mallorca away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 52.4% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +2.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.36 | 39.6% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 29.2% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 69.7% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 71.5% | 1.40 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.0% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.93 | 47.6% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -2.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.33 | 21.7% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -2.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 31.2% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Granada CF
- 2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Andorra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 1-1 (D)
Mallorca
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Almeria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T19:30:00.000Z · Granada CF 2-0 Mallorca (Segunda División)
- 2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 0-1 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2023-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · Granada CF 3-2 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2022-05-07T12:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 6-2 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2021-12-19T13:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 4-1 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2020-07-16T19:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 2-1 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2020-01-05T11:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 1-0 Mallorca (La Liga)
- 2019-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 1-1 Mallorca (Segunda División)
- 2018-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · Granada CF 1-0 Mallorca (Segunda División)
- 2013-03-03T11:00:00.000Z · Granada CF 1-2 Mallorca (La Liga)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.