Arena do Grêmio · Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Gremio vs Internacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gremio and 1.12 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Internacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gremio home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–27.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 55.5% vs market 47.3%, edge +8.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +8.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.57 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.8% | 1.41 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.2% | 36.4% | 2.75 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.2% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 34.6% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 65.5% | 1.53 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -8.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gremio
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
Internacional
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 3-1 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-27T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Internacional (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-11T23:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Internacional (Serie A)
- 2026-03-08T21:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
- 2026-03-01T21:00:00.000Z · Gremio 3-0 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
- 2026-01-25T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-4 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
- 2025-09-21T20:30:00.000Z · Gremio 3-2 Internacional (Serie A)
- 2025-04-20T00:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Serie A)
- 2025-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
- 2025-03-08T20:45:00.000Z · Gremio 0-2 Internacional (Gaúcho - 1)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.