Arena do Grêmio · Referee A. Policarpo Bento · Analysis updated 19:39 UTC
Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gremio and 1.18 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gremio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Gremio or Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.6%
Why the model likes this
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gremio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Gremio and 1.18 for Sao Paulo, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Gremio
Sao Paulo
- 2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2026-02-12T00:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2024-12-01T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2024-07-17T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-10-21T21:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-3 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2021-12-02T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 3-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2021-08-15T00:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.