Kauniaisten Keskuskentta · Analysis updated 17:21 UTC
GrIFK vs Ilves II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for GrIFK and 2.32 for Ilves II, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Ilves II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ilves II win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GrIFK home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ilves II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.1%
Recent form
GrIFK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 1-2 (L)
Ilves II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 2-6 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 2-1 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 2-1 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2022-07-16T14:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 2-0 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2022-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 1-3 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2021-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · GrIFK 1-0 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2021-07-24T15:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 4-2 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2020-06-13T12:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 1-6 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2019-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 3-1 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2019-07-13T14:00:00.000Z · GrIFK 2-3 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ilves II win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.