Euroborg · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Groningen and 1.86 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ajax win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Groningen home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 42.6% vs market 34.1%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 42.6% | 2.35 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 44.7% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.8% | 23.2% | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.67 | 54.5% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.3% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 57.4% | 1.74 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Groningen
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-21T16:45:00.000Z · Groningen 0-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · Groningen 3-1 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2025-12-02T13:30:00.000Z · Groningen 0-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Groningen 2-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2024-10-06T14:45:00.000Z · Groningen 1-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Groningen 2-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-14T12:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-6 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2022-04-02T14:30:00.000Z · Groningen 1-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2021-09-25T16:45:00.000Z · Groningen 0-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2021-03-07T11:15:00.000Z · Groningen 1-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.