· Analysis updated 05:51 UTC
GVVV Veenendaal vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for GVVV Veenendaal and 1.18 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives GVVV Veenendaal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GVVV Veenendaal win
65.5% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GVVV Veenendaal home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DVS 33 Ermelo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GVVV Veenendaal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for GVVV Veenendaal and 1.18 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
GVVV Veenendaal
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ROHDA Raalte · 3-1 (W)
DVS 33 Ermelo
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SVZW · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportlust '46 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 3-0 DVS 33 Ermelo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 5-1 DVS 33 Ermelo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 2-0 DVS 33 Ermelo (Derde Divisie)
- 2022-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 3-2 DVS 33 Ermelo (Derde Divisie)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GVVV Veenendaal win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.