Victoria Park · Referee Dale Baines · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Hartlepool vs Eastleigh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.84 for Eastleigh, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Hartlepool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hartlepool win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hartlepool home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastleigh away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 57.8% vs market 45.3%, edge +12.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +12.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.6% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.9% | 23.2% | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.4% | 49.0% | 2.04 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.8% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.6% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -12.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hartlepool
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Harrogate Town · 0-1 (L)
Eastleigh
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southend · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlisle · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 1-0 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 2-0 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 1-1 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2024-11-16T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 0-0 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 1-1 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 3-1 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2021-03-13T15:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 0-0 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2021-02-16T17:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 1-2 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2020-01-07T19:45:00.000Z · Hartlepool 2-1 Eastleigh (National League)
- 2019-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Hartlepool 1-1 Eastleigh (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hartlepool win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.