Easter Road · Analysis updated 22:45 UTC
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hibernian and 2.00 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian to Win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.5%
Why the model likes this
Hibernian home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heart Of Midlothian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Hibernian and 2.00 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Hibernian
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 4-1 (W)
Heart Of Midlothian
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.