· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Holbæk B&I vs AB Copenhagen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Holbæk B&I and 1.56 for AB Copenhagen, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Holbæk B&I the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Holbæk B&I win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holbæk B&I home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AB Copenhagen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holbæk B&I to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Holbæk B&I and 1.56 for AB Copenhagen, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Holbæk B&I
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Aarhus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ringsted · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ishøj · 4-0 (W)
AB Copenhagen
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esbjerg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hillerød · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · Holbæk B&I 1-2 AB Copenhagen (DBU Pokalen)
- 2024-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Holbæk B&I 2-0 AB Copenhagen (DBU Pokalen)
- 2015-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Holbæk B&I 1-0 AB Copenhagen (2nd Division - Group 1)
- 2015-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · Holbæk B&I 2-1 AB Copenhagen (2nd Division - Group 1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Holbæk B&I win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.