Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion · Referee Gaston Philippe · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Huachipato vs Colo Colo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.86 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Colo Colo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colo Colo win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huachipato home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colo Colo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–28.2%
- 2–16.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.47 | 61.5% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.31 | 39.8% | 41.3% | 2.42 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.3% | 77.3% | 1.29 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.92 | 23.6% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.31 | 40.6% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.76 | 52.6% | 53.0% | 1.89 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.96 | 47.5% | 47.0% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.58 | 59.4% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.3% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 22.7% | 4.41 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.2% | 58.7% | 1.70 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.35 | 38.5% | 36.4% | 2.75 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Huachipato
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-5 (L)
Colo Colo
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs A. Italiano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs A. Italiano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 1-0 Colo Colo (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-04-01T21:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-1 Colo Colo (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-03-16T23:30:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-2 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2025-08-03T19:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 2-2 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2025-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 2-1 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2024-11-13T22:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-2 Colo Colo (Super Cup)
- 2024-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 1-2 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2024-03-03T21:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-2 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2023-07-29T21:30:00.000Z · Huachipato 1-3 Colo Colo (Primera División)
- 2023-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-1 Colo Colo (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | D. La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colo Colo win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.