MKM Stadium · Referee Michael Salisbury · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Hull City vs Everton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Hull City and 1.33 for Everton, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hull City home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Everton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–28.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 54.3% vs market 47.3%, edge +7.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 54.3% | 1.84 | +7.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 54.6% | 55.1% | 1.81 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.6% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 1.38 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 27.6% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 45.7% | 2.19 | -7.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hull City
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-0 (D)
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2022-01-08T17:30:00.000Z · Hull City 2-3 Everton (FA Cup)
- 2017-03-18T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-4 Everton (Premier League)
- 2016-12-30T20:00:00.000Z · Hull City 2-2 Everton (Premier League)
- 2015-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 2-0 Everton (Premier League)
- 2014-12-03T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Everton (Premier League)
- 2014-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-2 Everton (Premier League)
- 2013-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-2 Everton (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.