IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.77 for Radnik Surdulica, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives IMT Novi Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IMT Novi Beograd win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IMT Novi Beograd home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radnik Surdulica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

IMT Novi Beograd win60%

Draw23%

Radnik Surdulica win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.2%
2–012.2%
1–111.0%
2–19.5%
0–08.2%

Recent form

IMT Novi Beograd

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 1-1 (D)

Radnik Surdulica

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemun · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cukaricki · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 0-0 Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga)
2025-10-29T15:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 1-0 Radnik Surdulica (Cup)
2025-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 0-2 Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga)
2024-05-01T14:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 5-2 Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga)
2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 1-0 Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga)
2023-10-06T14:30:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 1-1 Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga)

Super Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	13	12	1	0	29	37
2	Vojvodina	13	9	2	2	16	29
3	Železničar Pančevo	12	7	2	3	9	23
4	IMT Novi Beograd	13	6	3	4	6	21
5	Radnicki 1923	12	6	2	4	4	20
6	Cukaricki	13	5	3	5	-1	18
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	-6	18
8	Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	0	17
9	Novi Pazar	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	FK Partizan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
11	OFK Beograd	13	2	5	6	-9	11
12	Macva	13	2	4	7	-12	10
13	Radnicki NIS	12	2	2	8	-13	8
14	Zemun	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IMT Novi Beograd win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.