Estádio Beira-Rio · Referee Lucas Casagrande, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Internacional vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Internacional and 1.30 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Internacional home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Internacional and 1.30 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Internacional
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-3 (L)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-11T22:00:00.000Z · Internacional 0-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2025-11-02T21:30:00.000Z · Internacional 0-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2025-06-13T00:30:00.000Z · Internacional 0-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2024-10-26T23:00:00.000Z · Internacional 3-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2024-06-27T00:30:00.000Z · Internacional 1-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2023-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · Internacional 0-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2023-05-14T00:00:00.000Z · Internacional 0-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2022-07-31T19:00:00.000Z · Internacional 3-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2022-04-10T19:00:00.000Z · Internacional 0-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2021-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · Internacional 0-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.