Aggborough Stadium · Referee Paul Marsden · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Kidderminster Harriers vs Barrow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kidderminster Harriers and 0.95 for Barrow, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Kidderminster Harriers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kidderminster Harriers win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kidderminster Harriers home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barrow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Kidderminster Harriers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutton Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Woking · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-0 (W)
Barrow
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wealdstone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Scunthorpe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 1-1 Barrow (National League)
- 2017-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 0-1 Barrow (FA Trophy)
- 2016-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 0-0 Barrow (National League)
- 2015-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 1-1 Barrow (National League)
- 2013-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 2-0 Barrow (National League)
- 2012-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 1-1 Barrow (National League)
- 2012-03-03T15:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 1-2 Barrow (National League)
- 2011-10-22T14:00:00.000Z · Kidderminster Harriers 1-3 Barrow (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kidderminster Harriers win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.