Kristianstads Fotbollsarena · Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Kristianstad vs Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kristianstad and 1.27 for Olympic, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kristianstad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Kristianstad and 1.27 for Olympic, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 50.2% vs market 35.9%, edge +14.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 35.9% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +14.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 61.0% | 61.5% | 1.63 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.3% | 72.7% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 2.92 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.4% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.7% | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.7% | 65.8% | 1.52 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 64.1% | 49.8% | 2.01 | -14.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kristianstad
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Malmo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lund · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Laholm · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonkopings Sodra · 0-0 (D)
Olympic
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Södra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborg | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 60 |
| 2 | Hässleholms IF | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 51 |
| 3 | Atvidabergs FF | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 4 | Lund | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 44 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 40 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Jonkopings Sodra | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Olympic | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 36 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 35 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | Eskilsminne | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -8 | 30 |
| 14 | Laholm | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -10 | 29 |
| 15 | Angelholms FF | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 27 | 2 | 6 | 19 | -42 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.