Raiffeisen Arena · Referee Alexander Harkam, Austria · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.83 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lask Linz win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lask Linz home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SCR Altach away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Lask Linz and 0.83 for SCR Altach, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.40 (model 76.8% vs market 66.3%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.40 | 66.3% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +10.5 |
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +8.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.9% | 56.1% | 1.78 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.6% | 24.8% | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.4% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -8.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Vienna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-1 (L)
SCR Altach
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bischofshofen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lask Linz win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.