Estadio Municipal de Butarque · Referee A. Ojaos · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Leganes vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Leganes and 1.18 for Castellón, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Castellón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leganes home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 58.3% vs market 44.3%, edge +14.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +14.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 70.2% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.3% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.5% | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.3% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 70.3% | 1.42 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -14.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leganes
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cadiz · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 0-2 (L)
Castellón
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · Leganes 0-2 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2026-01-16T19:30:00.000Z · Leganes 0-2 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-29T18:30:00.000Z · Leganes 0-1 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2021-03-06T17:15:00.000Z · Leganes 0-0 Castellón (Segunda División)
- 2020-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · Leganes 0-2 Castellón (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Girona | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Granada CF | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 15 | Cordoba | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Las Palmas | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 17 | Leganes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.