Estadio Ciudad de Valencia · Referee A. Quintero · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Levante vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Levante and 1.31 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levante home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 54.1% vs market 43.7%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 3.30 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 27.9% | 3.58 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 44.0% | 43.9% | 2.28 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.5% | 56.1% | 1.78 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.1% | 1.39 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Levante
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 5-2 (W)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T15:15:00.000Z · Levante 2-4 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2025-11-29T17:30:00.000Z · Levante 0-2 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2022-03-07T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-3 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2021-11-19T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-0 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2021-03-04T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-2 Athletic Club (Copa del Rey)
- 2021-02-26T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-1 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2021-02-11T20:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-1 Athletic Club (Copa del Rey)
- 2020-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · Levante 0-2 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2020-07-12T15:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-2 Athletic Club (La Liga)
- 2019-11-10T13:00:00.000Z · Levante 1-2 Athletic Club (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.