Passo das Emas · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Luverdense vs Inhumas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Luverdense and 0.73 for Inhumas, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Luverdense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luverdense win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inhumas away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luverdense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Luverdense and 0.73 for Inhumas, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Luverdense
Inhumas
- 2026-06-07T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Luverdense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brasiliense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Aparecidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Primavera MG · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luverdense win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.