Estadio La Rosaleda · Referee F. Maeso · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Malaga vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Malaga and 1.07 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Malaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–112.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 56.6% vs market 46.7%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 35.1% | 35.5% | 2.82 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 35.1% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.7% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.2% | 64.5% | 1.55 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Malaga
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)
Espanyol
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2021-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-3 Espanyol (Segunda División)
- 2020-11-02T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-3 Espanyol (Segunda División)
- 2020-09-02T16:45:00.000Z · Malaga 0-3 Espanyol (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-05-13T14:15:00.000Z · Malaga 1-4 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2018-01-08T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2017-02-04T12:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2016-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 2-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2016-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2015-11-21T19:30:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.