· Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Manila Digger vs Tuloy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Manila Digger and 0.65 for Tuloy, a combined total of 5.15. That distribution gives Manila Digger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 94%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 94% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Manila Digger win
94.2% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manila Digger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 94%, against 94% / 4% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Manila Digger and 0.65 for Tuloy, a combined 5.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 45%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 94% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
6%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–09.9%
- 5–08.9%
- 3–08.8%
- 6–06.7%
- 4–16.4%
Recent form
Manila Digger
Tuloy
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
PFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila Digger | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 90 | 54 |
| 2 | Taguig | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 52 |
| 3 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 42 |
| 4 | Kaya | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 55 | 41 |
| 5 | Stallion | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 33 |
| 6 | Davao Aguilas | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 32 |
| 7 | Maharlika | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Garelli United | 20 | 5 | 0 | 15 | -42 | 15 |
| 9 | Tuloy | 20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -92 | 11 |
| 10 | Mendiola | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -86 | 7 |
| 11 | Philippine Army | 20 | 0 | 2 | 18 | -110 | 2 |
| 1 | Maharlika | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Garelli United | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | -34 | 22 |
| 3 | Tuloy | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -87 | 18 |
| 4 | Mendiola | 24 | 3 | 2 | 19 | -89 | 11 |
| 5 | Philippine Army | 24 | 0 | 2 | 22 | -125 | 2 |
| 1 | Manila Digger | 26 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 96 | 63 |
| 2 | Taguig | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 76 | 58 |
| 3 | Kaya | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 48 |
| 4 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 49 | 48 |
| 5 | Davao Aguilas | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 40 |
| 6 | Stallion | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 29 | 37 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manila Digger win, at 94.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 94% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.