Estádio do Marítimo · Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Maritimo vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Maritimo and 2.13 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Porto win
71.2% probability
Expected goals
0.67 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maritimo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.8%
- 0–113.0%
- 0–39.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.4% | 81.6% | 1.23 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 9.00 | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.62 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.30 | 71.2% | 71.2% | 1.40 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.0% | 43.0% | 2.33 | 0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.62 | 57.0% | 57.0% | 1.75 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.30 | 28.8% | 28.8% | 3.47 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.5% | 18.4% | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.06 | 89.8% | 89.6% | 1.12 | -0.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
FC Porto
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-02-01T19:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-06T19:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-5 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-01-30T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 3-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-06-10T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-10-30T18:45:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-03-16T20:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-3 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-11-03T18:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.