José Maria de Campos Maia · Referee Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Mirassol vs Botafogo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.01 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Mirassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirassol home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Botafogo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirassol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Mirassol and 1.01 for Botafogo, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 53.1% vs market 42.4%, edge +10.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +10.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.7% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 44.6% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.0% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -10.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mirassol
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 2-1 (W)
Botafogo
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2026-04-01T22:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 2-3 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2025-11-01T21:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 0-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2025-09-17T22:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 3-3 Botafogo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.