Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.00 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Mirassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirassol home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gremio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Mirassol
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
Gremio
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 0-1 Gremio (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 1-1 Gremio (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-07-17T23:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 2-1 Gremio (Serie A)
- 2025-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 1-0 Gremio (Serie A)
- 2025-04-16T22:00:00.000Z · Mirassol 4-1 Gremio (Serie A)
- 2022-03-02T00:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 3-2 Gremio (Copa Do Brasil)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.