Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia · Referee Joao Vitor Gobi, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.47 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirassol home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Mirassol and 1.47 for Palmeiras, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.90 | 48.6% | 50.8% | 1.97 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 74.7% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.02 | 46.3% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.70 | 25.3% | 26.2% | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.7% | 73.7% | 1.36 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 73.7% | 73.7% | 1.36 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 52.6% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 46.1% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.4% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.4% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mirassol
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.