Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.88 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Mjallby AIF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Mjallby AIF win

73.0% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

2.52 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mjallby AIF home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Club d'Escaldes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mjallby AIF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.52 goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.88 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mjallby AIF win73%

Draw16%

Inter Club d'Escaldes win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.6%
2–19.3%
3–08.9%
1–08.4%
3–17.8%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.30 (model 53.7% vs market 41.3%, edge +12.4 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	YesValue	2.30	41.3%	53.7%	1.86	+12.4
Double chance	Draw/AwayValue	4.00	23.8%	27.0%	3.70	+3.2
Match result	Home	1.22	72.8%	73.0%	1.37	+0.2
Match result	Draw	5.50	16.1%	16.0%	6.25	-0.1
Match result	Away	8.00	11.1%	11.0%	9.09	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.12	84.9%	84.0%	1.19	-0.9
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.04	91.4%	89.0%	1.12	-2.4
Both teams to score	No	1.62	58.7%	46.3%	2.16	-12.4

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Mjallby AIF

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gais · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK Stockholm · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BK Hacken · 1-1 (D)

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mjallby AIF win, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.