Strandvallen · Referee Adam Ladeback, Sweden · Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.60 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sirius win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mjallby AIF home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sirius away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.44 | 66.0% | 68.1% | 1.47 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 41.6% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 28.7% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 53.8% | 54.5% | 1.83 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 45.5% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.0% | 70.1% | 1.43 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 45.5% | 45.5% | 2.20 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 54.5% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.3% | 75.4% | 1.33 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.9% | 24.6% | 4.07 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.4% | 56.9% | 1.76 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.80 | 34.0% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mjallby AIF
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 0-1 (L)
Sirius
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Elfsborg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2026-07-03T17:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 4-4 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-07-27T14:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-1 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-07-14T17:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-1 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-11-03T15:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 1-1 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-07-06T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 3-2 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 3-2 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 3-0 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-03-04T12:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 3-2 Sirius (Svenska Cupen)
- 2022-07-31T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 1-0 Sirius (Allsvenskan)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sirius win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.