Stade Louis II · Referee Ruddy Buquet · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Monaco and 0.92 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Monaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monaco win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Monaco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Monaco and 0.92 for Toulouse, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 50.0% vs market 41.9%, edge +8.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 50.0% | 2.00 | +8.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.7% | 1.24 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.1% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.60 | 57.6% | 57.6% | 1.74 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.4% | 19.2% | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 50.0% | 2.00 | -8.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Monaco
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)
Toulouse
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T19:05:00.000Z · Monaco 2-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-07T19:45:00.000Z · Monaco 1-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-18T14:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2023-12-20T20:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2023-06-03T19:00:00.000Z · Monaco 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2022-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
- 2019-12-04T18:00:00.000Z · Monaco 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monaco win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.