Moreirense vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.83 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

FC Porto to Win

67.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.59 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Moreirense win11%

Draw22%

FC Porto win67%

Double chance 1X

33%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–116.3%
0–214.8%
1–19.6%
0–39.0%
0–08.9%

Why the model likes this

Moreirense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 11% / 22% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for Moreirense and 1.83 for FC Porto, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Moreirense

2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)

FC Porto

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.