Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Referee Fabio Melo, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Moreirense vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.07 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moreirense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 59.0% vs market 51.1%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 51.1% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.4% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.5% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 3.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 33.1% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -2.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.9% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Moreirense
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-03-06T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-03-07T17:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-2 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-03-09T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-3 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-10-28T15:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-04-15T15:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.