Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Moreirense vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.70 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Santa Clara win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Moreirense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Clara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Moreirense and 1.70 for Santa Clara, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Moreirense
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.