Moreirense vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Moreirense and 2.18 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sporting CP win

63.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Moreirense home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Moreirense win17%

Draw20%

Sporting CP win64%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–29.9%
0–29.6%
1–19.1%
0–18.9%
1–37.2%

Recent form

Moreirense

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)

Sporting CP

2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-21T18:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-09-22T19:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-04-18T19:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2024-12-05T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2024-02-19T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2023-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2022-03-14T20:15:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2021-10-23T19:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2021-04-05T20:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2020-11-28T20:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.