· Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Nacional vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nacional and 1.83 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Casa Pia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Casa Pia win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Nacional
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 2-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-16T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-10-25T17:45:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (Taça de Portugal)
- 2023-09-28T19:15:00.000Z · Nacional 1-2 Casa Pia (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-02-09T17:30:00.000Z · Nacional 5-2 Casa Pia (Taça de Portugal)
- 2022-02-19T14:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Casa Pia (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-2 Casa Pia (Segunda Liga)
- 2020-11-25T10:00:00.000Z · Nacional 3-2 Casa Pia (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Casa Pia win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.