Estádio da Madeira · Referee Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Nacional vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nacional and 1.35 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estoril away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 47.1% vs market 44.0%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.0% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +3.1 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +3.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 37.5% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 72.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.78 | 33.7% | 34.5% | 2.90 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.42 | 65.4% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.0% | 60.9% | 1.64 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.8% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -2.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 52.9% | 1.89 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nacional
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
Estoril
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 2-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-26T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 1-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-15T17:00:00.000Z · Nacional 2-2 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-2 Estoril (Taça da Liga)
- 2019-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Nacional 2-1 Estoril (Segunda Liga)
- 2017-04-09T15:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2016-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.