Estádio da Madeira · Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Nacional vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Nacional and 1.21 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.4% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 60.1% vs market 50.0%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.4% | 1.34 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.7% | 3.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 44.8% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 70.3% | 1.42 | -2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 39.9% | 2.51 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nacional
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
Famalicao
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-4 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-21T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-01T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-01T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-29T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 0-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-3 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-01-30T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-02-04T16:00:00.000Z · Nacional 2-3 Famalicao (Segunda Liga)
- 2017-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Nacional 3-0 Famalicao (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.