Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo · Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Napoli U20 vs Bologna U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Napoli U20 and 1.35 for Bologna U20, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Bologna U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli U20 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bologna U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bologna U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Napoli U20 and 1.35 for Bologna U20, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Napoli U20
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lecce U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 1-1 (D)
Bologna U20
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Empoli U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Como U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo U20 · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · Napoli U20 1-1 Bologna U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)
- 2025-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · Napoli U20 1-2 Bologna U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Bologna U20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Empoli U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Roma U20 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Genoa U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Lazio U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Fiorentina U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Lecce U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Cesena U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Milan U20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Como U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Torino U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Sassuolo U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Juventus U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Hellas Verona U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Atalanta U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.