Gillette Stadium · Referee Sergiy Boyko, Ukraine · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for New England Revolution and 1.13 for Orlando City SC, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives New England Revolution the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New England Revolution win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New England Revolution home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Orlando City SC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–26.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 43.8% vs market 31.9%, edge +11.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.90 | 31.9% | 43.8% | 2.28 | +11.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.7% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.1% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.4% | 52.4% | 1.91 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.6% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.5% | 23.4% | 4.27 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.6% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.1% | 56.2% | 1.78 | -11.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
New England Revolution
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Cincinnati · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Sounders · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
Orlando City SC
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Toronto FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-04-29T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 3-4 Orlando City SC (US Open Cup)
- 2025-07-19T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-10T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 3-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 0-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-07-13T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-02-11T00:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 1-3 Orlando City SC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-06-17T23:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 3-1 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-02-19T00:30:00.000Z · New England Revolution 2-1 Orlando City SC (Friendlies Clubs)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 55 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 42 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 67 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 55 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -12 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 36 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 34 |
| 13 | DC United | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -24 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New England Revolution win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.